# EvalMap · Past & future outlook as of 14 November 2026

Source page: https://evalmap.ai/outlook/

# Past & future outlook.

A quantitative look back at 176 model releases across 85 days (2026-08-21 to 2026-11-13), 15 closed forecast weeks, 337 scored probability predictions and multi-month benchmark trajectories — paired with Q4 2026 to Q1 2027 pipeline odds, lab cadence windows and statistical trend extrapolations.

Historical numbers are measured directly from EvalMap’s sealed sources. Future values combine live open forecasts with transparent statistical extrapolations of past cadence and Epoch ECI slopes — never fabricated benchmark scores.

[Release cadence](https://evalmap.ai/outlook/#past)[Forecast calibration](https://evalmap.ai/outlook/#calibration)[Capability velocity](https://evalmap.ai/outlook/#velocity)[Near-term pipeline](https://evalmap.ai/outlook/#future)[Q1 2027 outlook](https://evalmap.ai/outlook/#cadence)

Release tempo176 releases2.07/day · 58 open weights (33.0%)

Odds Brier score0.153vs markets (164 pairs): 0.164 vs 0.202

Frontier velocity (13 mo)+1.45 ECI/mo153.0 → 173.4 (R²=0.95; open +1.43/mo)

Q1 2027 trend (Mar)~177.3 ECI95% band 174.8–179.9 · open ~167.6

## The past: release cadence & surprise rate

Across 85 tracked days, the frontier ecosystem shipped more than two releases per day, with open weights accounting for one-third of all launches and roughly four in five releases landing without a public week-ahead rumor.

### Monthly volume & modality mix

Language leads (113, 64.2%), followed by speech (33), image (16) and video (14). Open weights: 58/176 (33.0%), including 46/113 language models.

| Month | Days | Releases | Rate |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-08 (partial) | 11d | 12 | 1.09/d |
| 2026-09 | 30d | 66 | 2.20/d |
| 2026-10 | 31d | 67 | 2.16/d |
| 2026-11 (partial) | 13d | 31 | 2.38/d |

### Weekly forecast ledger & likelihood accuracy

Over 15 closed weeks, 21 of 64 weekly-named cards (32.8%) shipped inside their named 7-day window, and 19 shipped later. Meanwhile 164 of 204 total releases (80.4%) arrived with no prior weekly card.

| Confidence | Targeted week hits | All weekly appearances |
| --- | --- | --- |
| high | 4/4 (100.0%) | 22/151 (14.6%) |
| medium | 9/25 (36.0%) | 10/26 (38.5%) |
| low | 8/35 (22.9%) | 8/46 (17.4%) |

Implication: targeted high calls hit 100% on time, yet ~4 in 5 total launches ship without a week-ahead rumor.

### Observed lab cadence (makers with ≥3 releases)

| Maker | Total | Open | Median gap | Mean gap | Latest | Next projected window |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Alibaba Qwen | 10 | 2 | 4.5d | 9.6d | 2026-11-11 | 2026-11-21 |
| inclusionAI (Ant Group) | 9 | 6 | 6.0d | 10.9d | 2026-11-05 | 2026-11-16 |
| Google DeepMind | 8 | 0 | 6.0d | 11.1d | 2026-11-12 | 2026-11-23 |
| OpenAI | 8 | 0 | 8.0d | 8.9d | 2026-11-04 | 2026-11-22 |
| Tencent Hunyuan | 8 | 5 | 9.0d | 11.0d | 2026-11-13 | 2026-11-24 |
| Meta | 7 | 1 | 4.0d | 13.8d | 2026-11-09 | 2026-11-23 |
| Anthropic | 6 | 0 | 15.0d | 17.2d | 2026-11-09 | 2026-11-26 |
| NVIDIA | 6 | 6 | 6.0d | 8.8d | 2026-10-28 | 2026-11-15 |
| Microsoft AI | 5 | 0 | 26.0d | 18.0d | 2026-10-27 | 2026-11-14 |
| Baidu | 4 | 1 | 3.5d | 3.5d | 2026-11-12 | 2026-11-16 |
| DeepSeek | 4 | 3 | 10.0d | 19.0d | 2026-10-17 | 2026-11-24 |
| Z.ai | 4 | 2 | 21.0d | 15.7d | 2026-10-12 | 2026-11-28 |

## Forecast calibration & market edge

Across 337 scored daily predictions, EvalMap averaged Brier 0.153 (and beat markets 0.164 vs 0.202 on the 164 overlapping pairs). The edge comes almost entirely from avoiding hype spikes on thin prediction markets, while reliability bins show a systematic conservative bias in the middle probability range.

### Reliability curve (predicted vs actual)

Calibration across 337 scored daily predictions (overall Brier 0.153; LOO recalibrated 0.132).

| Bin | N | Pred | Actual | Bias | Brier |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 0–20% | 75 | 6.2% | 10.7% | +4.5% | 0.084 |
| 20–40% | 67 | 29.1% | 50.7% | +21.7% | 0.303 |
| 40–60% | 50 | 46.6% | 70.0% | +23.4% | 0.246 |
| 60–80% | 78 | 67.9% | 89.7% | +21.9% | 0.149 |
| 80–100% | 67 | 87.9% | 100.0% | +12.1% | 0.017 |

### Head-to-head by market source

On liquid Polymarket contracts EvalMap essentially ties the market, whereas on Manifold contracts EvalMap gains −0.190 Brier by anchoring to maker docs rather than unverified Reddit/X rumors (such as Qwen4 in Oct).

| Source | N | EvalMap | Market | Edge |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Manifold | 32 | 0.088 | 0.278 | -0.190 |
| Polymarket | 132 | 0.182 | 0.183 | -0.001 |

LOO calibration & log-odds recalibration: in the 20–80% middle band (n=195), actual ship rates averaged 71.3% vs 49.1% predicted (+22.2 pp). Regularized log-odds shift (a=+1.02) lowers leave-one-question-out out-of-sample Brier from 0.153 to 0.132 (-0.021; 2D Platt 0.140).

### Brier score by question

| Question | N | EvalMap | Market | Resolution |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| GPT-6 Terra (OpenAI) | 30 | 0.460 | 0.407 | OpenAI GPT-6.1 Terra (2026-10-26) |
| A new MiniMax model (MiniMax) | 9 | 0.383 | — | MiniMax MiniMax-M3.1-Flash-Preview (2026-09-27) |
| Muse Spark open weights (Meta) | 27 | 0.304 | — | Meta Muse Spark Open (2026-10-15) |
| Muse Spark 1.4 or a newer Muse Spark (Meta) | 16 | 0.253 | 0.378 | Expired / open |
| Kimi K3.1 (Moonshot AI) | 30 | 0.148 | — | Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro (2026-10-23) |
| A new OpenAI model (DevDay is 29 Sep) (OpenAI) | 15 | 0.143 | — | OpenAI GPT-6.1 Sol (2026-09-29) |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 (Anthropic) | 15 | 0.121 | 0.058 | Anthropic Claude Sonnet 5.5 (2026-09-28) |
| The Claude model after Fable 5.1 (Anthropic) | 30 | 0.113 | 0.365 | Anthropic Claude Fable 5.2 (2026-11-09) |
| Grok 4.8 (xAI) | 16 | 0.105 | 0.143 | Expired / open |
| Qwen4, any of the series (Alibaba) | 30 | 0.099 | 0.413 | Alibaba Qwen Qwen4-Max-Preview (2026-11-11) |
| Gemini 4, any tier (Google) | 24 | 0.088 | 0.019 | Google DeepMind Gemini 4 Argon (2026-10-13) |
| Watermelon (Meta) | 24 | 0.069 | 0.035 | Meta Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full (Watermelon) (2026-10-12) |
| Step 5 open weights (StepFun named 15 Oct) (StepFun) | 27 | 0.035 | — | StepFun Step 5 Preview open weights (2026-10-15) |
| DeepSeek V4.1-Pro (DeepSeek) | 16 | 0.034 | 0.038 | Expired / open |
| Claude Haiku 5.5 (Anthropic) | 18 | 0.019 | 0.005 | Anthropic Claude Haiku 5.5 (2026-10-07) |
| Mistral Large 4 open weights (Mistral AI) | 3 | 0.016 | — | Mistral AI Mistral Large 4 (2026-10-29) |
| FastH3-Omni open weights (FastVideo named 20 Oct) (FastVideo (Hao AI Lab)) | 3 | 0.010 | — | FastVideo (Hao AI Lab) FastH3-Omni open weights (2026-10-20) |
| MiMo-V3 (Xiaomi) | 1 | 0.010 | — | Expired / open |
| Nemotron 3.5 Bolt E4B (NVIDIA named 23 Oct) (NVIDIA) | 3 | 0.002 | — | NVIDIA Nemotron 3.5 Bolt E4B (2026-10-23) |

## Capability velocity: closed vs open frontier

Over 13 months of Epoch ECI (2025-11 to 2026-11), both the overall frontier (+1.45 pts/mo, R²=0.95) and the open-weight frontier (+1.43 pts/mo, R²=0.95) climbed on nearly parallel linear tracks, keeping the general capability gap near 9–12 ECI points (~6.5 months) even as open weights caught up to lead Terminal-Bench.

### Epoch ECI cumulative frontier & Q1 2027 statistical extrapolation

All models (observed & OLS trend)Open weights (observed & OLS trend)±1.96×RMSE band (±2.6 pts)

Statistical linear extrapolation from historical frontier envelope; not a benchmark measurement.

| Rolling ECI backtest | Windows | MAE | RMSE |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| +1 mo | 9 | 1.34 | 1.51 |
| +2 mo | 8 | 1.55 | 1.79 |
| +3 mo | 7 | 1.42 | 2.00 |

### Artificial Analysis 48-day jump

Between 2026-09-27 and 2026-11-14 (48 days):

| Metric | Start | Latest | Gain | Current leader |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| AA Intelligence v5 | 57.6 | 64.6 | +7.0 | Claude Fable 5.2 (max with fallback) |
| Terminal-Bench Hard | 59.6% | 67.2% | +7.6 | Kimi K3.1 Pro (open) |

### JEEP 3D & LMArena frontier

JEEP 3D (83 scored builds) tops out at 58/100 (Pareto 26.10 Preview), leaving 42 points of uncaptured agentic 3D coding headroom. LMArena (2026-10-13) tops at 1525 Elo (gemini-4-argon-high).

| JEEP top builds | Score |
| --- | --- |
| Pareto 26.10 Preview | 58 |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 48 |
| Mistral Large 4 Preview | 48 |
| MiMo 2.6 Flash | 46 |

## The future: near-term pipeline (Nov 2026 – Jan 2027)

10 active odds questions and 11 expected cards track the immediate release pipeline through 31 January 2027.

### Active odds watchlist

| Model | by 30 Nov | by 31 Dec | by 31 Jan |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DeepSeek V4.1-Pro (DeepSeek) | 12% mkt 8% | 25% mkt 18% | 65% mkt 90% |
| Grok 4.8 (xAI) | 65% mkt 54% | 88% mkt 91% | 92% mkt 94% |
| Muse Spark 1.4 or a newer Muse Spark (Meta) | 45% mkt 49% | 72% mkt 77% | 85% no mkt |
| MiMo-V3 (Xiaomi) | 8% no mkt | 24% no mkt | 45% no mkt |
| Hy4 open weights (Tencent Hunyuan) | 65% no mkt | 85% no mkt | 92% no mkt |
| ERNIE 5.5 Flash open weights (Baidu) | 82% no mkt | 94% no mkt | 97% no mkt |
| Next OpenAI language model (GPT-6.2) (OpenAI) | 65% mkt 72% | 88% mkt 93% | 95% no mkt |
| Hy4 Flash (Tencent Hunyuan) | 35% no mkt | 65% no mkt | 82% no mkt |
| Kardashev-0.7 (Banbury Road) | 18% no mkt | 48% no mkt | 68% no mkt |
| Fern 0.1 (Mirendil) | 18% no mkt | 45% no mkt | 65% no mkt |

### Open expected cards

| Model | Likelihood | Bucket | Window / signal |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Grok 4.8 (xAI) | medium | further out | ‘later this week’ (Musk, 10 Nov) |
| Qwen-Image 3.1 (Alibaba) | high | further out | later this year |
| DeepSeek V4.1-Pro (DeepSeek) | high | further out | day not named |
| A new OpenAI model (none named) (OpenAI) | medium | this week | ‘very soon’, none named |
| MiMo-V3 (Xiaomi) | high | further out | announced 23 Sep, no date |
| Kardashev-0.7 (Banbury Road) | high | further out | announced 5 Oct, no date |
| Fern 0.1 (Mirendil) | high | further out | announced 26 Oct, no date |
| Genie 4 (Google DeepMind) | high | further out | announced 27 Oct, no date |
| Hy4 open weights (Tencent Hunyuan) | high | further out | ‘in the coming days’ |
| Hy4 Flash (Tencent Hunyuan) | high | further out | announced 4 Nov, no date |
| ERNIE 5.5 Flash open weights (Baidu) | high | further out | by 25 Nov |

## Q1 2027 trajectory (through March 2027)

Extending observed Sep–Nov release rates and 13-month capability slopes through Q1 2027 gives baseline volume and capability bands under steady scaling.

### Projected release volume (Sep–Oct pace ~2.18/d)

| Period | Days | Baseline | Range (1.9–2.4/d) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11 (rest, 17d) | 17d | 37 | 32–41 |
| 2026-12 | 31d | 68 | 59–74 |
| 2027-01 | 31d | 68 | 59–74 |
| 2027-02 | 28d | 61 | 53–67 |
| 2027-03 | 31d | 68 | 59–74 |

### Projected Epoch ECI frontier (linear trend ±95% residual band)

| Month | All trend | 95% band | Open trend | Gap |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-12 | 173.0 | 170.4–175.5 | 163.3 | 9.6 |
| 2027-01 | 174.4 | 171.9–177.0 | 164.8 | 9.7 |
| 2027-02 | 175.9 | 173.3–178.4 | 166.2 | 9.7 |
| 2027-03 | 177.3 | 174.8–179.9 | 167.6 | 9.7 |

If AA’s 48-day pace continues at 0.5×–1.0× slope, Q1 2027 leaders would sit near 74.6–84.6 AA Intelligence and 78.0–88.9% Terminal-Bench Hard.

### Lab cadence survival priors (conditional release odds)

Empirical survival probabilities computed by tools/odds.py prior from observed inter-release intervals and elapsed days since each maker’s latest release.

| Maker | Elapsed | Mean gap | by 30 Nov | by 31 Dec | by 31 Jan |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Alibaba Qwen | 3d | 9.6d | 78% | 99% | 99% |
| Tencent Hunyuan | 1d | 11.0d | 83% | 99% | 99% |
| Google DeepMind | 2d | 11.1d | 66% | 99% | 99% |
| inclusionAI (Ant Group) | 9d | 10.9d | 77% | 99% | 99% |
| OpenAI | 10d | 8.9d | 90% | 99% | 99% |
| Meta | 5d | 13.8d | 61% | 98% | 99% |
| Undisclosed (stealth) | 6d | 13.0d | 69% | 99% | 99% |
| Anthropic | 5d | 17.2d | 69% | 97% | 99% |
| NVIDIA | 17d | 8.8d | 84% | 99% | 99% |
| Microsoft AI | 18d | 18.0d | 75% | 96% | 99% |

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